Cassandra's Curse and 5 Changes Coming to the World
We're often prisoners of the moment, trends and underlying patterns can often give us a window into the coming times
As a child, I found the myth of Cassandra to be implausible. Cassandra was a Trojan princess who was given the gift of foresight with one catch. No one would ever believe her prophecies. She knew that Troy would fall yet no one listened to her. It did not matter that she had always been right, people still did not listen.
In my adolescence, I reasoned that if someone could easily prove their predictive abilities that they would eventually be believed. As I have gotten older I have seen how childish the notion was. People cling to the truths they have created for themselves. They have a vision of the world that they do not want to be challenged. People are even willing to act against their best interests to uphold the illusion of normalcy that comes with this feeling. In my own life I can think of a poignant example. As someone who obsesses over geopolitics I began reading about COVID 19 when it was still an unidentified virus in Wuhan in late December/Early January. I scoured podcasts of people living in China to hear their firsthand accounts since no information was forthcoming. I was not the only one to call that this would become a serious issue but I can explicitly remember telling several people that this virus would come to the United States and cause major problems. They ignored me but what happened next shocked me. I was not given any credence for my prediction, I listened to them each talk about when they realized COVID was a big deal and no one listed my ranting. Needless to say I still would not be believed even if I accurately predicted the future.
We live in an everchanging world. It is hard to understate how important this moment is in the grand arc of human history. If we do not bomb ourselves into oblivion, this will be seen as the most important era in human history yet we do not realize it. Many have seen it and have had bold predictions. There have been some who have made stunning predictions that were ignored. For example, Ron Paul and many libertarians warned of the NSA and the surveillance state but were not given much credit after the fact.
In this article, I am going to give some predictions for the future that are not being listened to enough in my opinion. Most of these ideas are not wholly original but some are my own. There are also varying degrees of how seriously the public takes each idea. For example, I won’t go on about the impending US-China conflict because most people have come to accept the reality of the situation. If I wrote this article in 2013 that may have been my number one topic, but we are in the present. Without further ado, here are the prophecies of some Modern Cassandras.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Will Cause an Existential Crisis for MENA and Europe
In 2021, the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia is finally getting more attention. To sum up the crisis, Ethiopia is seeking to dam up the Nile to create more power for their country. Ethiopia has massive potential as a nation and needs more cheap electricity if they are to become the regional hegemon they aspire to be. Abiy Ahmed has a grand vision to restore Ethiopia and is executing it. The problem with Ethiopia putting a dam upstream of the Nile lies within Egypt. The dam could reduce the flow of the Nile by a quarter. Egypt almost entirely depends on the Nile for all of their water and a dam would severely limit the flow of water. There is little rain and all of the food and crops produced are a result of the Nile. Naturally, a nation will not tolerate their life source potentially being cut off.
If Egypt was the military power that Al-Sisi portrays them as, this issue would be confined to the region. In that world, the worst case scenario is that a regional war breaks out and Egypt asserts itself. In reality, Egypt is riddled with corruption and puts most of their effort into staying together as a nation, not projecting power. (If you get the chance, read the Yacoubian Building to understand how bad and deep corruption became under Mubarak.) Egypt is trying to build up its economy and fix the country but there is a long way to go and not much time. Anecdotally, I have never heard much positive about their military capabilities. The level of corruption under Mubarak has been impossible to escape, especially with the population pressures I’ll touch on soon. This has affected the military as well and in a war it would be hard to expect much out of their officer corps if they did not get their positions through merit. Egypt’s worst nightmare is that their military would be a paper tiger similar to Saddam Hussein’s. Although Ethiopia is not a dominant military force, they have loads of experience fighting Eritrea and now in fighting a civil war in Tigray. It is hard to envision Egypt outright winning a war against Ethiopia and by the day it seems less likely.
If Egypt were to either lose or only fight to a draw the results would become disastrous. The graph above is critical to understanding why this dam could become an existential crisis for the Middle East and Europe. Egypt has experienced a population boom (as has much of the Middle East). One of the main reasons for the Arab Spring taking off was that there were a ton of young people and no prospects for a better future. These problems have not gotten better. Youth unemployment in Egypt has been hovering around 30% for years. As much as Egypt pushes their GDP growth, they still have an existential threat of having so many young people who are dissatisfied. There is already a large Egyptian diaspora as people try to leave the country and send remittances home. For a small country like Jordan, this is much more sustainable. For a country of 100 million people, it becomes impossible.
The strongman rule of Al-Sisi is likely whats keeping a lid on potentially the largest refugee crisis in modern history. This crisis would unfold in some manner similar to this. After a conflict over failed negotiations, the Nile’s output is severely restricted. At first, some non-essential agricultural industries will collapse, namely the citrus industry. Then, the government will not be able to meet people’s basic water needs within the massively overcrowded Cairo. Egypt will abandon their fight against ISIS in the Sinai and attempt to stop massive protests and riots against the failing government. With the economy and tatters and legitimacy of the state ruined, a civil war will likely commence. It will be propped up even more by foreign powers through places like Libya and possibly Sudan.
Once any kind of conflict occurs, there will be a massive tragedy. People are going to risk everything to escape. For context, Syria has had more than 5 million people flee the country and had around 20 million people when their civil war started. If this crisis was half as bad it would mean many times more refugees. The Syrian refugee crisis has already pushed the limits of Jordan and Turkey and they would be wholly unequipped to deal with a new and bigger wave.
It is impossible to predict what would then happen in this scenario but I can see a few outcomes. The worst case outcome is that Egypt devolves into lawlessness and non-state actors take control of areas and destabilize the whole region, potentially bringing down other governments. This would then lead to refugees overwhelming countries and forcing Europe and Turkey to either try and fail to welcome them or choose violence. Sadly, I think this time around that Europe would take drastic action to stop this number of people from seeking their help. The best case scenario is that Egypt’s allies in the US and the Gulf Countries take action to keep the government afloat but likely have to deal with a humanitarian crisis to do so. Neither is a good outcome.
Regardless of how things play out, this dam has the potential to completely reset politics in a large part of the world. If the EU, Turkey, and the Gulf countries are not actively planning for the worst and trying to mediate this conflict then they will face the greatest threat they have in a generation. Their worst case scenario could see states collapsing in the face of such upheaval. More of the world’s attention needs to go into finding a resolution between Egypt and Ethiopia before millions pay the price.
Decentralized Cryptocurrencies will Replace the US Dollar as the Global Currency in 10-20 Years
This prediction is quite the long term one so I will not even attempt to say what the effects of this would be. You may think that this statement is outrageous. It certainly would have been more outrageous to say 5 years ago. There are several reasons why I think the Petrodollar is on its way out and why crypto makes sense as humanity’s next economic step. Nation states will take much longer to adopt crypto but it will become the standard for businesses in an increasingly volatile world.
The dollar faces a myriad of problems. For one, as a truly free floating currency it needs there to be a strong belief in the United States’ ability to pay its debt for it to succeed. With our debt now eclipsing our GDP, confidence in the government’s ability and willingness to pay off debts is eroding. If the US were to have its credit rating downgraded in the bond market then a shockwave would occur. What makes the dollar so attractive has been its relative stability and the fact that is backed by the most powerful government on earth. If China’s rise challenges America’s status as the unipolar power (which it already has), then the dollar becomes a riskier asset to hold.
The response to COVID’s economic consequences by the world has endangered many fiat currencies. This push is reminiscent of the Yuan Dynasty’s turn to paper money. The Yuan faced an existential threat in the form of invasions and warfare. The capacity of the state was pushed to the brink and more money was needed. They turned to paper currency hoping that the belief in the strength of the state would be enough to give the currency backing. This worked for a while but eventually this trust faded and hyperinflation kicked in. Much of the the Western World and East Asia (and the Middle East) have been racking up debt for a long time and at some point the chickens will come home to roost.
It is also important to note that many powerful countries do not like the dollar as the global reserve currency since it gives the US the ability to ice out countries from the global market. Other currencies are challenging the US for the reasons listed above and many other issues I have not dug into. These other currencies have their own problems that do not make them any more attractive than the dollar (not least of which is that the US would not find it acceptable for another currency to replace the petrodollar). Some currencies like the Yuan, Euro, Yen, and Rupee may seem like natural alternatives but they all have massive issues as well that crypto does not.
The Rupee: Although India will one day have one of the world’s largest economies, their currency is not there yet. It is kept intentionally low to help attract foreign investment and facilitate trade. The global community is not going to trust any currency that is being manipulated in this way.
The Yen: Japan’s heyday was certainly in the past. With massive debt, zombie companies, and a demographic crisis it is hard to trust the future of the Japanese economy. To top it off, the Japanese government has also helped deflate the value of the Yen.
The Euro: The Greek debt crisis demolished trust in the Euro. Beyond Europe’s fading future, the Euro’s structure has serious problems. The central bank often does what is best for Germany and not other member states (e.g. setting interest rates that benefit developed Germany and hurt undeveloped Southern Italy). To compound the issue, the EU may not survive as an entity, especially if the US militarily retreats from Europe.
The Yuan: The Yuan is the best contender to replace the dollar but other nations are not likely to trust China. The new digital innovation is a challenge but few nations use the Yuan now due to fears of China’s control, volatile capital markets, and history of brazen currency manipulation. No one wants their fate controlled by the same guys putting minorities into concentration camps and disappearing dissidents.
Why Crypto?
There are a lot of different cryptocurrencies out there which can make choosing one a difficult prospect. The smart contracts of Ethereum and size of Bitcoin make them attractive options. I posit that the future will lie with stablecoins (some backed by those cryptocurrencies). Some transactions will occur with the larger cryptocurrencies but stablecoins and some other niche coins will become the go to currencies for large businesses and for currency reserves.
Before I get ahead of myself, it is important to dig into the advantages that cryptocurrencies offer. The first is that most are decentralized and cannot be controlled by a single entity. To a non-aligned country this is a major benefit. The next is that they are generally backed by something tangible such as mining or a smart contract, they are not purely backed by faith in a government. There are also many different cryptocurrencies to choose from meaning that even if one became compromised or monopolized that others could be used.
Many businesses are already using crypto for key functions. For example, Celo is already replacing things like Western Union. They allow for money transfers to be done at incredibly cheap prices (less than a cent) and have a stable currency so the amount is more precise. Many functions can be done much more efficiently, securely, and privately with blockchain.
When it comes to which currencies will be used for transactions I believe it will either be native currencies like Celo’s or it will be done with stablecoins like Dai. Stablecoins are backed assets, like Bitcoin and Ethereum, but are designed to not have insane fluctuations in price like those two. They are pegged assets and may be safer to perform transactions in. Many nations and companies will still hold the bigger name cryptocurrencies in reserve. Regardless, the near future will be one where blockchain rules.
A Quasi-Religious Movement Against Social Media Rises in Force
Society has rapidly changed since internet access became standard for cell phones. There have been a number of revolutions that each would warrant a department of study if they were in another historical era. LinkedIn has changed networking and jobs, Tinder has fundamentally changed human relationships, and Twitter has changed political expression just to name a few. Unfortunately, there has been a massive social cost to the bumptious rise of the internet.
Social media amplifies many of our worst characteristics as humans. Apps like Instagram breed envy and an entire generation has grown up living for the approval of others. This approval has been directly quantified through likes. Multiple studies have shown that social media produces a dopamine reward system similar to a drug. The addiction to these platforms is real and the results are too. One study showed that kids in today’s world have higher levels of social anxiety than psychiatric patients in the 1950’s.
The sentiment against social media can be found among all demographics. Many recognize its harm but realize how ubiquitous it is in society. I am in this category, I’d like to delete all my social media but realize it confers certain advantages to me. Recent political shifts in the United States may result in a large number of individuals fully leaving social media. Warranted or not, the decision to ban President Trump from most social media platforms set off a wave of conservatives leaving. Regulation is likely coming towards these companies as well with both parties set against them. This recent shift is important because many people are realizing they are happy off of the platform and not returning, once other events occur that cause different constituencies to leave they may also not return.
This all comes at a time when less and less Americans are going to church but an increasing number of people want some sort of spiritual meaning in their life. As this void is naturally filled, social media may suffer. It is too easy a target and scapegoat for many of the societal ills of our society. It has bred loneliness and isolation which have been amplified by the pandemic. I think in the near future as people seize on the current spiritual void in the West that a movement against social media will become part of it. People from all persuasions will likely begin to have more resentment towards it as well regardless of any spiritual movement.
A Major Famine Occurs in the Next Decade Due to Climate Change
It would be unfair to say there is not already massive food insecurity and famine in the world. Yemen is already experiencing one of the worst famines in modernity. Millions are at risk and many thousands have already died. There have also been disease outbreaks and the total lack of infrastructure in Houthi controlled areas has compounded the issue. This famine is the result of a war in the region and the subsequent blockade, not climate change (at least directly).
There is a lot of hysteria around climate change with experts claiming the end is near every day. Although it can be hard to filter good information from bad, it is clear that weather is worsening in many parts of the world (e.g. desertification in the Sahel). Climate change has already had severe geopolitical effects. Crop failures have helped create circumstances for extremists groups, like Daesh, to gain support and erode trust in already weak states.
Much of the world already struggles with hunger. Many of these situations are due to having frankly evil governments (Venezuela and North Korea) or current conflicts (Yemen). Perhaps it is more frightening that some nations are threatened by hunger without a major political fiasco ongoing. Worse yet, the nations in the Central Sahel may see crop failure if Lake Chad shrinks further and they already face the threats of Boko Haram and the Islamic State. Both of these groups continue to gain support. The last offensive by the France, US, and G-5 countries dispersed these groups but did not do much to eradicate them. Factor in this deep political insecurity with the fact that Lake Chad has shrunk by 90% since 1960 and there is a recipe for millions to not have food.
This is one example of a place where famine could strike if the current trends continue. There are plenty of other areas that are at risk and still others that could become so if new conflicts emerge. Since globalization has come to a screeching halt, it is harder to see the world uniting to provide the aid needed to a country experiencing a huge famine. It is hard to overstate how devastating famine is. It causes the breakdown of everything in life and society. Food and water our are most basic needs and when those cannot be provided catastrophe follows.
The CCP Attempts to Exterminate the Elderly
China’s principle challenge in the 21st century will be its demographics. The one child policy created a monstrosity that demographists have nightmares about. Not only are there far less young than old, there is also a massive gender imbalance that promises to exacerbate the crisis. In a past era, this would have just meant a shrinking population and a recovery after the older generation died out. This crisis has hit China just as medicine has now allowed the elderly to live much longer than they used to.
China has Confucian based ethics and these same ethics stress the importance of caring for the elderly. To quote him, “A youth, when at home, should be filial, and abroad, respectful to his elders. He should be earnest and truthful.” This is taken so seriously that the CCP has even codified it into law. The economic and political rise of China are threatened by this reality. If the same system stays around with pensions for the elderly then the government will have to massively tax the young to keep it. This promises to either bankrupt the state or gut the economic potential of the young middle class.
This prediction is quite bold because it assumes that the CCP will be willing and able to make a move against the elderly. There are already some signs that China is taking action. They have raised the age of retirement even if it upset many. The CCP has proven time and again that they are a fully Machiavellian, amoral institution. They are performing a genocide at the level of the Holocaust (which is no exaggeration) and already require all of their citizens to have their minority status stated on an ID.
If the CCP believes that getting rid of the elderly is their only route to hegemony then they will attempt it. I do not necessarily believe they will succeed and an attempt could be their downfall. It will be a slow process that escalates quickly. Pensions will disappear, then healthcare will be shifted away from the elderly, and eventually the state will refuse to let resources sustain what they will see as a drain on the population. Whether they decide to use their Uyghur solution on the elderly will be the real question.
Very impressive article. A lot to ponder.
The Best Read I've Had In Sometime. 100% Believe In Pr dictions. Every word made Sence.
Thank You